Trends/Relative strength, cycles and structure

Turn-of-month effect

The stock's average return in the last day and the first three days of a month.

Relative strength, cycles and structureBest on 3Y, 5Y, MAXAlso called month-end effect

Illustration of the turn-of-month effect shape. It is a sketch, not real price data.

What it shows

Some studies found that returns around the turn of the month have been higher than in the middle. We compute the stock's average return over the last trading day and the first three of each month compared with other days.

It is a description of the stock's past.

How we find it

The same code that draws it on your chart follows these steps, with the same result every time.

Label each trading day: turn-of-month (last 1 and first 3) or other.
Average the daily returns of each group.
Show the difference.
Show the number of months used.

Starting values: Window last 1 and first 3 days. These are proposed and will be tuned on real price data before launch.

How to read it

The two bars compare turn-of-month days with other days.
Teal is positive, red is negative.
Differences are small.

Status labels you may see

Label	What it means
Higher at turn	Turn average above other days.
Lower at turn	Below other days.
No difference	Within 0.02%.

What cancels it

Nothing cancels it.

What traders check next

Sample size.
Variation.
Calendar changes.

Limits

Small samples.
Effects may fade.
Could be caused by cash flows (pay days, funds).

Try it in forecastviz

Open any ticker and choose Relative strength, cycles and structure → Turn-of-month effect in the left menu.
Switch between 3Y, 5Y, MAX to see how the picture changes.
Compare with Monthly seasonality and Day-of-week effect on the same chart.

Open on a ticker

Questions

Why would it matter?

Some link it to monthly cash flows. We make no claim.

Is it reliable?

Not proven for any given stock.