Trends/Moving averages

Arnaud Legoux moving average

A smooth moving average that uses a bell-shaped weighting, shifted toward recent bars.

Moving averagesBest on 3M, 6M, 1YAlso called ALMA

Illustration of the Arnaud Legoux moving average shape. It is a sketch, not real price data.

What it shows

Arnaud Legoux and Dimitrios Kouzis Loukas designed ALMA to be smooth and low in lag. It weights the last N closes with a bell curve (Gaussian) and moves the peak of the bell toward the newest bars with an offset.

The result is smoother than an EMA and has less lag than an SMA.

How we find it

The same code that draws it on your chart follows these steps, with the same result every time.

Choose N, offset (0.85) and sigma (6).
Compute weights from a bell curve centered at offset × (N − 1) with width N ÷ sigma.
Multiply each close by its weight and add them up.
Divide by the sum of the weights.

Starting values: N 9; Offset 0.85; Sigma 6. These are proposed and will be tuned on real price data before launch.

How to read it

The line is smooth.
It follows price with little lag.
A lower offset makes it smoother and slower.

Status labels you may see

Label	What it means
Rising	The line is higher than 2 bars ago.
Falling	The line is lower than 2 bars ago.
Flat	The line changed by under 0.1%.

What cancels it

Nothing cancels it.

What traders check next

Whether the offset suits the stock.
The slope of the line.
How it compares with an EMA.

Limits

Three settings to tune.
Less common.
Still lags price.

Try it in forecastviz

Open any ticker and choose Moving averages → Arnaud Legoux moving average in the left menu.
Switch between 3M, 6M, 1Y to see how the picture changes.
Compare with Hull moving average and Exponential moving average on the same chart.

Open on a ticker

Questions

What do offset and sigma do?

Offset shifts the bell toward recent bars. Sigma sets how narrow the bell is.

Is it better?

It is smoother with less lag. Whether that matters depends on use.