Trends/Moving averages

Hull moving average

A moving average built to be smooth and still follow price closely, by combining two weighted averages.

Moving averagesBest on 3M, 6M, 1YAlso called HMA

Illustration of the Hull moving average shape. It is a sketch, not real price data.

What it shows

Alan Hull designed this average to cut lag while staying smooth. It uses a short WMA and a long WMA, doubles the short one, subtracts the long one, and then smooths the result with a third WMA over the square root of N.

The result tracks price closely and turns early. It can overshoot at sharp turns.

How we find it

The same code that draws it on your chart follows these steps, with the same result every time.

Compute WMA(N ÷ 2) and WMA(N).
Compute 2 × WMA(N ÷ 2) − WMA(N).
Take a WMA of that result over the square root of N bars.
Plot it.

Starting values: N 21. These are proposed and will be tuned on real price data before launch.

How to read it

The line is smoother than an EMA yet closer to price.
It turns before an SMA of the same length.
Overshoots at sharp turns are normal.

Status labels you may see

Label	What it means
Rising	The line is higher than 2 bars ago.
Falling	The line is lower than 2 bars ago.
Flat	The line changed by under 0.1%.

What cancels it

Nothing cancels it.

What traders check next

Whether it overshoots price at turns.
The slope of the line.
How it compares with the EMA of the same length.

Limits

Overshoots when price turns sharply.
More complex to calculate.
Less common.

Try it in forecastviz

Open any ticker and choose Moving averages → Hull moving average in the left menu.
Switch between 3M, 6M, 1Y to see how the picture changes.
Compare with Weighted moving average and Exponential moving average on the same chart.

Open on a ticker

Questions

Why the square root?

It smooths the combined series without adding much lag.

Is it better than EMA?

It has less lag and more overshoot.