Trends/Gaps and breakouts

Turtle breakout

A close above the highest high of the last 20 or 55 days.

Gaps and breakoutsBest on 6M, 1YAlso called 20-day breakout, 55-day breakout
Turtle breakout diagramIllustration of the Turtle breakout shape. It is a sketch, not real price data.20-bar high
Illustration of the Turtle breakout shape. It is a sketch, not real price data.

What it shows

In the 1980s Richard Dennis trained a group called the Turtles using a simple breakout rule. System 1 used 20-day highs, System 2 used 55-day highs. The rule is a Donchian channel breakout.

We show whether today's close is above those highs. It is a description of a rule, not a recommendation.

How we find it

The same code that draws it on your chart follows these steps, with the same result every time.

  1. Highest high of the last 20 bars (and 55).
  2. Compare today's close.
  3. Mark a breakout if close is above the 20-bar (or 55-bar) high.
  4. Show the level and the distance.

Starting values: Short 20 bars; Long 55 bars. These are proposed and will be tuned on real price data before launch.

How to read it

  • The red line is the 20-bar high.
  • Price closes above it at the gold dot.
  • The channel is stepped.

Status labels you may see

LabelWhat it means
Above 55-day highClose above the 55-bar high.
Above 20-day highClose above the 20-bar high only.
InsideClose below both.

What cancels it

Ends when the close falls back below the level.

What traders check next

  • Volume at the break.
  • How many bars price stayed above.
  • The size of the channel.

Limits

  • Many breakouts fail.
  • Rules were part of a larger system.
  • Settings are choices.

Try it in forecastviz

  • Open any ticker and choose Gaps and breakouts → Turtle breakout in the left menu.
  • Switch between 6M, 1Y to see how the picture changes.
  • Compare with Donchian channels and Range breakout on the same chart.

Questions

Was the original system profitable?

It was reported so in the 1980s. We make no claim today.

Why 20 and 55?

They were the Turtles' parameters.

Related trends

Further reading

  • Edwards and Magee, Technical Analysis of Stock Trends
  • Bulkowski, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns
  • Murphy, Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets
  • Crabel, Day Trading with Short Term Price Patterns

Educational only. Not financial advice, and not a price forecast. Charts are drawn by code from past price data, which may be delayed.